For the second consecutive Grand Slam and for the third time in four, the top 4 seeds are contesting the semi finals. Although this time the matches are different, because the Australian Open organisers blundered terribly and forgot to draw Nadal and Murray in the same half, once again the last men standing are Djokovic, Nadal, Federer and Murray. Over the next few days we will be treated to two incredible games of tennis and a routine straight sets victory for Djokovic. It is only the third time it has happened in Australian Open history, yet it is becoming routine.
Obviously by this stage of the tournament the tennis will be anything but boring. No matter how many times they play each other you can never get enough of the top 4 battling it out in a Slam. The stories that can unfold will all be interesting. Will Murray finally break through? Is Federer back and just how ridiculous an article would Kevin Mitchell of the Guardian write if he did win? Does Nadal still have Federers number? However just how much of the tournament has actually been exciting. Increasingly the other 124 entrants have the feeling of the SPL also-rans, turning up without even the slightest hope or expectation of even reaching a final.
Even a couple of years back it was likely one of Murray and Djokovic would lose early on. Recently however, the current top 4 have taken consistency in Grand Slams to a level that has rarely been seen before. There is still the odd moment, such as Isner v Nadal at the French, or Haase v Murray at the US Open, where there are early worries, but increasingly the top 4 prevail. Any unseeded player is unlikely to progress far and there is no hope of a qualifier going on to reach a semi or a final.
STATS
Between the four of them in Australia, they have won 57 sets to 3. At no point have any of them faced any real trouble. Murray dropped the first set to Harrison in round 1 and hasn't been troubled since, Djokovic dropped one to Hewitt and Nadal lost a set to Berdych.
Such is their dominance that when the world number 5 Ferrer faced Djokovic this morning, Djokovics odds were 1.11 to win.
In 2011, 6 different players made it to a Grand Slam semi final. In 1995 there were 10 different Grand Slam semi-finalists. In 2000, there were 12. In 2005, there were 10. The last time one of the top 4 fell before the quarter finals was Andy Murray's horror show against Wawrinka in the 2010 US open. Yet in 1995 world number 1 Pete Sampras lost in the first round at Paris. In 2000 world number 1 Gustavo Kuerten lost in the first round at Australia and the US Open. In 2005 players like Mariano Puerta were making Slam finals.
Since 1970, 5 players have made all four grand slam finals in a year. Ivan Lendl, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray and Roger Federer.
Six players have made five consecutive grand slam semi finals: Ivan Lendl, Boris Becker, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray and Roger Federer.
The last unseeded players to make a Slam semi final were Marat Safin and Rainer Schuttler at Wimbledon 2008. In 2005 alone there were five, including two qualifiers.
The last unseeded player to make a Slam final was Tsonga in 2008 Australian Open. There was 1 in 2006 (Baghdatis), 1 in 2005 (Puerta), 1 in 2004 (Gaudio), 2 in 2003 (Phillipoussis and Verkerk).
The last time one of the "big four" players lost in the first round of a slam was Andy Murray in Australia in 2008. The last time one of the top 4 seeds went out in the first round was Andy Roddick in the French Open in 2007. It happened four times in 1995.
IS THIS RUINING TENNIS?
Obviously it isn't. The mere fact there are four of them means that the big tournaments are always exciting. Any of the top three could win any Slam and they usually find the most exciting and dramatic of ways to do so. Nobody is desperate for the days of Federer beating some random guy from the crowd in straight sets in a Slam final. If anything it has driven the profile of tennis higher and in five years when things open up we will miss these times.
But increasingly there is some predictability creeping in. The form they show in Slams is translating into the regular tour as well. Federer is on a 24 match winning streak (ish, he did withdraw from a match but didn't lose), Murray has won 36 of his last 40 matches and Djokovic went 42 matches without defeat earlier on in 2011. The Asian swing was dominated by Murray without much in the way of epic matches. Federer then took control at the end of the season winning every event he entered. After his loss today, David Ferrer lamented that the gap between the top four and the rest could not be closed. Somebody switching on the Australian Open for the first time tomorrow will essentially have missed absolutely nothing of consequence. For all intents and purposes the tournament begins tomorrow.
As a final point to just how much further ahead than the rest they are, there was only one tournament in 2011 which featured one or more of Murray, Nadal, Federer and Djokovic which wasn't ultimately won by them...
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