Stanislas Wawrinka, Nicolas Almagro and Fernando Verdasco have all knocked Andy Murray out of a Grand Slam. In the 2011 French Open, Viktor Troicki served to knock out Andy Murray before suffering an attack of the Hendersons and losing. The nationalities of these men? Swiss, Spanish and Serbian. The nationalities of the three men stopping Murray from winning every tournament going? Swiss, Spanish and Serbian. Number of victories these players have had against their own top 4 countrymen? Twice in 39 attempts.
Roger Federer v Stanislaw Wawrinka
Overall Head to Head: 10-1
I first noticed this odd set of events when these two faced each other a few times in Grand Slams recently. Before every match it was stated that Wawrinka was a dangerous player who would undoubtedly cause Federer problems. Then every match was a procession which would only have been less competitive if Wawrinka had just not bothered to get out of his chair at all after the changeovers. It was more than obvious that Wawrinka, in a display of loyalty to his fellow Swissman, was making life as easy as possible for Federer.
The three times they have met in a Grand Slam, Federer has won in straight sets. He has a 10-1 career record over him. How on its own this wouldn't be too bad. But what is also abundantly clear is Wawrinka then raises his own game to attempt to knock out Murray. Murrays career head to head with Wawrinka is only 6-4 in his favour and he was knocked out by him in the great US Open debacle of 2010. At Wimbledon in 2009 Murray was pushed all the way in a gruelling five sets that could have gone either way. Essentially Wawrinka is conspiring with Federer and the stats back it up.
Rafael Nadal v Fernando Verdasco
Head to Head: 12-0
Soon after I noticed the Wawrinka conspiracy a commentator remarked what an excellent record Nadal had over other Spanish players. What he did not mention was just how excellent it was. In the 12 times Nadal has played Verdasco, he was won all of them. One of these defeats was 6-0 6-1 in a Masters Series Final. Way to keep things competitive there Fernando.
Now this isn't quite as bad as Wawrinka, as Verdasco pushed Nadal all the way in the Australian Open in 2009 and indeed only lost 11-9 in a third set tie break to him last time they met. Nevertheless, there is a consistent pattern of straight sets victories outwith those two matches.
Again, Verdasco isn't quite as determined to screw over Murray as Wawrinka, but he has knocked him out of a Grand Slam and indirectly out of the World Tour Finals by winning a set.
Rafael Nadal v Nicolas Almagro
Head to Head 7-0
This is slightly unfair on Almagro as he is a player you would actually expect to never have beaten Nadal. Nevertheless, he is now a top 10 player somehow so he should be included. In November 2009, Almagro had 5 match points against Nadal and still lost. When they met in the French Open in 2008 he was beaten 6-1 6-1 6-1.
Again slightly unfair to suggest he actually tries against Murray as they have met only three times, but Almagro did dump him out of the French Open in 2008.
Novak Djokovic v Viktor Troicki
Head to Head 10-1
Does this also apply to Serbia? For what its worth, the 1 was the first match they played and the 10 represent every match played since then. Troicki, to be fair, did give Djokovic a huge scare in the US Open in 2010 but at this stage it isn't ridiculous to suggest that was for show (actually that is ridiculous, Djokovic just took advantage of his nervousness). However once again the stats show that this is a ridiculously one sided match up. Earlier this year, Djokovic won 6-0 6-1. Which is only one more game than I would win against Djokovic.
Troicki did his absolute best to then knock out Murray from the French Open this year. At any rate he stretched him to five sets on a bad ankle, a result we shall entirely blame for his subsequent Semi Final defeat.
Ah but these are top players, surely they beat everybody all the time?
Nadal 6-2 Tsonga
Nadal 7-3 Roddick
Nadal 6-2 Soderling
Nadal 10-3 Berdych
Nadal 6-3 Del Potro (dick)
Federer 6-3 Tsonga
Federer 21-2 Roddick (fair enough)
Federer 16-1 Soderling (fair enough)
Federer 10-4 Berdych
Federer 7-2 Del Potro
Djokovic 4-5 Tsonga
Djokovic 3-5 Roddick
Djokovic 6-1 Soderling
Djokovic 7-1 Berdych
Djokovic 4-1 Del Potro
Fair to say they are all a bit more competitive. I think the stats certainly show that when facing their own countrymen Nadal, Djokovic and Federer get a very easy time of it. What would Murray give for some "top 30 British cannon fodder" to ease his journey through a Grand Slam?
Finally, a word for David Ferrer
David Ferrer has beaten Nadal 4 times and has knocked him out of a Grand Slam on two occasions. Would it be so hard for Stan, Nicolas, Fernando and Viktor to occasionally try as well?
Now who expects Djokovic v Tipsarevic (H2H 3-0) to be worth watching tomorrow?
Thursday 24 November 2011
Sunday 6 November 2011
Nobody Cares
Earlier this week Novak Djokovic lost only his fourth match this season. Comprehensively. To a player ranked 31st in the world. Yet nobody thought anything of it. This is because we are in the bizarre stage of the season where there is very little left to place for. It is now nearly two months since Djokovic out battled Nadal to claim the final Grand Slam of the season and the intervening period has seen a number of tournaments played, including a Masters Event. However, it has mostly passed without anybody caring.
Imagine if In February the Champions League Final took place and the league winners declared. Then between February and May the teams played a number of glorified friendlies. That is (sort of) the problem the tennis season has now. The last tournament that anybody cares about takes place in September yet the season does not end until November.
What has happened this year
After a short break the tournament goes over to Asia for a couple of tournaments. I've already suggested in previous blogs that this particular scheduling is poor and once again a number of players didn't bother. Novak Djokovic played the "ow, my shoulder" card and skipped it while Federer just couldn't be arsed. Nadal played in Tokyo and Shanghai as he completely forgot to come up with an excuse in time but was kind enough to let Murray finally have some glory in the tournaments that didn't matter. Murray then showed everybody just what would happen if he wasn't stuck with 3 of the greatest players of all time by winning every tournament without breaking sweat.
The tour then moved to Europe and Murray decided to play the "ow, my bum" card and withdraw. Nadal made sure he didn't forget to withdraw by announcing he wasn't playing Paris Masters about four weeks in advance, insisting he would definitely be injured that week but would be absolutely fine for the World Tour Finals. The Paris Masters will be won by somebody who has done very little all year but who will now be expected to have a big 2012 (but won't).
World Tour Finals Qualification
There is some value to these tournaments as they allow players the chance to qualify to the World Tour Finals in London. This year the top 4 and Ferrer (what did Ferrer do this year that got him so far ahead of the rest of the tour?) qualified by about February 5th. Thomas Berdych (no), Jo-Wilfred Tsonga (yes), Mardy Fish (no), Nicolas Almagro (meh), Juan Martin Del Potro (dear god no), Janko Tipsarevic (no) and Giles Simon (ok then) have been scrapping in a manner akin to bald men fighting over a comb to secure their places. Not one of them seems to have made even the slightest impact since the US Open anyway though meaning the only real concern is that Del Potro still somehow finds a way to make it in. Which I have literally this second found cannot happen as he has withdrawn from the Paris Masters. Excellent.
Making a Breakthrough
The player of Autumn this year appears to be Kei Nishikori. A player that up until now I was mostly confused as to why he featured on a tennis game on Nintendo Wii ahead of about 60 better players has made a bit of an impact by reaching the Shanghai semis and the Basle final beating Djokovic along the way. There is no doubt some people now tipping Nishikori to have a big 2012 but he won't. He just won't. And this time next year it will still be Berdych, Del Potro and Tsonga fighting for London.
Previous years
Andy Murray has a bit of a monopoly on the Shanghai Masters recently, as the other 3 don't actually bother. It has only been played since 2009 so it is difficult to indicate how meaningless it is. However, lets look at the Paris Masters:
2003 - Henman
2004 - Safin
2005 - Berdych
2006 - Davydenko
2007 - Nalbandian
2008 - Tsonga
2009 - Djokovic
2010 - Soderling
Quite how France, which already has a Grand Slam and sort of another masters (Monte Carlo), gets another Masters Event I am unsure. However that roll call of winners shows it is far from a Masters Event in the eyes of the main players.
Paris was famous for being the only Masters Event Henman won, which seemed a great achievement at the time. On reflection it is actually quite shameful that a player like Henman, who was in the top 10 for nearly 10 years, only won one Masters Event in this career. The fact Murray has now won about 8 puts that into perspective too. The fact it was the Paris Masters means it essentially doesn't even count.
Paris is Soderlings, Tsongas and Berdychs only Masters Event titles. Only Djokovic of the Big 4 have won the event. Nobody cares.
World Tour Finals
It should also be pointed out that even the World Tour Finals isn't exactly taken seriously. In 2005 when Federer was in the middle of a 25,000 unbeaten run (approximately) Nalbandian took the title. In 2006 James Blake was a finalist. James Blake. I'll let you think over that fact for a minute.
The 2007 runner up was David Ferrer. In 2008 Djokvoic was the victor in an event that Nadal missed and Federer managed to lose to Simon in. In 2009 Davydenko won after a season that had been dominated by Federer and Juan Martin Del Potro. It was only in 2010, when the big 4 made the semis and the worlds top two played the final, that the tournament actually did have a real "Tour Finals" feel to it.
Conclusion
After the US Open is finished the top players simply don't care. The winners of events between September and November are not reflective of the rest of the season. Even the World Tour Finals rarely has a deserved winner. There isn't really much else to add beyond roll on the Australian Open.
Imagine if In February the Champions League Final took place and the league winners declared. Then between February and May the teams played a number of glorified friendlies. That is (sort of) the problem the tennis season has now. The last tournament that anybody cares about takes place in September yet the season does not end until November.
What has happened this year
After a short break the tournament goes over to Asia for a couple of tournaments. I've already suggested in previous blogs that this particular scheduling is poor and once again a number of players didn't bother. Novak Djokovic played the "ow, my shoulder" card and skipped it while Federer just couldn't be arsed. Nadal played in Tokyo and Shanghai as he completely forgot to come up with an excuse in time but was kind enough to let Murray finally have some glory in the tournaments that didn't matter. Murray then showed everybody just what would happen if he wasn't stuck with 3 of the greatest players of all time by winning every tournament without breaking sweat.
The tour then moved to Europe and Murray decided to play the "ow, my bum" card and withdraw. Nadal made sure he didn't forget to withdraw by announcing he wasn't playing Paris Masters about four weeks in advance, insisting he would definitely be injured that week but would be absolutely fine for the World Tour Finals. The Paris Masters will be won by somebody who has done very little all year but who will now be expected to have a big 2012 (but won't).
World Tour Finals Qualification
There is some value to these tournaments as they allow players the chance to qualify to the World Tour Finals in London. This year the top 4 and Ferrer (what did Ferrer do this year that got him so far ahead of the rest of the tour?) qualified by about February 5th. Thomas Berdych (no), Jo-Wilfred Tsonga (yes), Mardy Fish (no), Nicolas Almagro (meh), Juan Martin Del Potro (dear god no), Janko Tipsarevic (no) and Giles Simon (ok then) have been scrapping in a manner akin to bald men fighting over a comb to secure their places. Not one of them seems to have made even the slightest impact since the US Open anyway though meaning the only real concern is that Del Potro still somehow finds a way to make it in. Which I have literally this second found cannot happen as he has withdrawn from the Paris Masters. Excellent.
Making a Breakthrough
The player of Autumn this year appears to be Kei Nishikori. A player that up until now I was mostly confused as to why he featured on a tennis game on Nintendo Wii ahead of about 60 better players has made a bit of an impact by reaching the Shanghai semis and the Basle final beating Djokovic along the way. There is no doubt some people now tipping Nishikori to have a big 2012 but he won't. He just won't. And this time next year it will still be Berdych, Del Potro and Tsonga fighting for London.
Previous years
Andy Murray has a bit of a monopoly on the Shanghai Masters recently, as the other 3 don't actually bother. It has only been played since 2009 so it is difficult to indicate how meaningless it is. However, lets look at the Paris Masters:
2003 - Henman
2004 - Safin
2005 - Berdych
2006 - Davydenko
2007 - Nalbandian
2008 - Tsonga
2009 - Djokovic
2010 - Soderling
Quite how France, which already has a Grand Slam and sort of another masters (Monte Carlo), gets another Masters Event I am unsure. However that roll call of winners shows it is far from a Masters Event in the eyes of the main players.
Paris was famous for being the only Masters Event Henman won, which seemed a great achievement at the time. On reflection it is actually quite shameful that a player like Henman, who was in the top 10 for nearly 10 years, only won one Masters Event in this career. The fact Murray has now won about 8 puts that into perspective too. The fact it was the Paris Masters means it essentially doesn't even count.
Paris is Soderlings, Tsongas and Berdychs only Masters Event titles. Only Djokovic of the Big 4 have won the event. Nobody cares.
World Tour Finals
It should also be pointed out that even the World Tour Finals isn't exactly taken seriously. In 2005 when Federer was in the middle of a 25,000 unbeaten run (approximately) Nalbandian took the title. In 2006 James Blake was a finalist. James Blake. I'll let you think over that fact for a minute.
The 2007 runner up was David Ferrer. In 2008 Djokvoic was the victor in an event that Nadal missed and Federer managed to lose to Simon in. In 2009 Davydenko won after a season that had been dominated by Federer and Juan Martin Del Potro. It was only in 2010, when the big 4 made the semis and the worlds top two played the final, that the tournament actually did have a real "Tour Finals" feel to it.
Conclusion
After the US Open is finished the top players simply don't care. The winners of events between September and November are not reflective of the rest of the season. Even the World Tour Finals rarely has a deserved winner. There isn't really much else to add beyond roll on the Australian Open.
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