The Wawrinka Conspiracy

Stanislas Wawrinka, Nicolas Almagro and Fernando Verdasco have all knocked Andy Murray out of a Grand Slam. In the 2011 French Open, Viktor Troicki served to knock out Andy Murray before suffering an attack of the Hendersons and losing. The nationalities of these men? Swiss, Spanish and Serbian. The nationalities of the three men stopping Murray from winning every tournament going? Swiss, Spanish and Serbian. Number of victories these players have had against their own  top 4 countrymen? Twice in 39 attempts.

Roger Federer v Stanislaw Wawrinka
Overall Head to Head: 10-1


I first noticed this odd set of events when these two faced each other a few times in Grand Slams recently. Before every match it was stated that Wawrinka was a dangerous player who would undoubtedly cause Federer problems. Then every match was a procession which would only have been less competitive if Wawrinka had just not bothered to get out of his chair at all after the changeovers. It was more than obvious that Wawrinka, in a display of loyalty to his fellow Swissman, was making life as easy as possible for Federer.

The three times they have met in a Grand Slam, Federer has won in straight sets. He has a 10-1 career record over him. How on its own this wouldn't be too bad. But what is also abundantly clear is Wawrinka then raises his own game to attempt to knock out Murray. Murrays career head to head with Wawrinka is only 6-4 in his favour and he was knocked out by him in the great US Open debacle of 2010. At Wimbledon in 2009 Murray was pushed all the way in a gruelling five sets that could have gone either way. Essentially Wawrinka is conspiring with Federer and the stats back it up.

Rafael Nadal v Fernando Verdasco
Head to Head: 12-0


Soon after I noticed the Wawrinka conspiracy a commentator remarked what an excellent record Nadal had over other Spanish players. What he did not mention was just how excellent it was. In the 12 times Nadal has played Verdasco, he was won all of them. One of these defeats was 6-0 6-1 in a Masters Series Final. Way to keep things competitive there Fernando.

Now this isn't quite as bad as Wawrinka, as Verdasco pushed Nadal all the way in the Australian Open in 2009 and indeed only lost 11-9 in a third set tie break to him last time they met. Nevertheless, there is a consistent pattern of straight sets victories outwith those two matches.

Again, Verdasco isn't quite as determined to screw over Murray as Wawrinka, but he has knocked him out of a Grand Slam and indirectly out of the World Tour Finals by winning a set.

Rafael Nadal v Nicolas Almagro
Head to Head 7-0


This is slightly unfair on Almagro as he is a player you would actually expect to never have beaten Nadal. Nevertheless, he is now a top 10 player somehow so he should be included. In November 2009, Almagro had 5 match points against Nadal and still lost. When they met in the French Open in 2008 he was beaten 6-1 6-1 6-1.

Again slightly unfair to suggest he actually tries against Murray as they have met only three times, but Almagro did dump him out of the French Open in 2008.

Novak Djokovic v Viktor Troicki
Head to Head 10-1


Does this also apply to Serbia? For what its worth, the 1 was the first match they played and the 10 represent every match played since then. Troicki, to be fair, did give Djokovic a huge scare in the US Open in 2010 but at this stage it isn't ridiculous to suggest that was for show (actually that is ridiculous, Djokovic just took advantage of his nervousness). However once again the stats show that this is a ridiculously one sided match up. Earlier this year, Djokovic won 6-0 6-1. Which is only one more game than I would win against Djokovic.

Troicki did his absolute best to then knock out Murray from the French Open this year. At any rate he stretched him to five sets on a bad ankle, a result we shall entirely blame for his subsequent Semi Final defeat.

Ah but these are top players, surely they beat everybody all the time?


Nadal 6-2 Tsonga
Nadal 7-3 Roddick
Nadal 6-2 Soderling
Nadal 10-3 Berdych
Nadal 6-3 Del Potro (dick)

Federer 6-3 Tsonga
Federer 21-2 Roddick (fair enough)
Federer 16-1 Soderling (fair enough)
Federer 10-4 Berdych
Federer 7-2 Del Potro

Djokovic 4-5 Tsonga
Djokovic 3-5 Roddick
Djokovic 6-1 Soderling
Djokovic 7-1 Berdych
Djokovic 4-1 Del Potro

Fair to say they are all a bit more competitive. I think the stats certainly show that when facing their own countrymen Nadal, Djokovic and Federer get a very easy time of it. What would Murray give for some "top 30 British cannon fodder" to ease his journey through a Grand Slam?

Finally, a word for David Ferrer


David Ferrer has beaten Nadal 4 times and has knocked him out of a Grand Slam on two occasions. Would it be so hard for Stan, Nicolas, Fernando and Viktor to occasionally try as well?

Now who expects Djokovic v Tipsarevic (H2H 3-0) to be worth watching tomorrow?