Monday 26 September 2011

How to fix the tennis schedule

This week toys have been thrown everywhere by Andy Murray and the rest of the top three about the tennis schedule. Various oars have been stuck in by the likes of Michael Stich and Martina Navratilova either supporting or decrying their position. Murray has threatened to go on strike, which we can only assume is what happens every year at Miami and Indian Wells.


The starting point for this debate was the US Open making and complete and utter hash of existing. While having to deal with very unfortunate weather conditions, the US Open made as many mistakes as it was possible to make. For a start they didn't have a roof, though given the huge sums involved this isn't the worst thing. They also refused to use covers. This is just stupid. To top it off, they sent Murray and Nadal out in what was essentially a tropical thunderstorm.

                          What Murray and Nadal played in

This seemed to be the final straw, particularly for Nadal, who for once refused to tow the party line and launched an interesting attack on the ITF (who run Grand Slams). Essentially the position was they didn't care for the players and having both the ITF and the ATP run things was not too successful. How can they fix things?

Fix the Davis Cup


The Davis Cup is actually quite a good idea in theory. It is a bit different to the usual format, gives doubles an important role and gets some team spirit into a mostly individual sport. However, the current format is fairly absurd. Asking Nadal, Djokovic, Murray etc to play two 5-set matches within a week of the US Open is not great and the schedule is spread out over a number of fairly inconvenient times in the schedule.

One possibility would be to make the Davis Cup a mandatory event, replacing a Masters Event, and give out ranking points. This would give players an extra free week and perhaps even increase the stature of the Davis Cup. On the down side, it isn't fair on players like Andy Murray and Giles Muller who are from countries where they are the only tennis players.

Another would be to change the format. Perhaps a World Group made up of only a top 8, and a significantly less long winded qualifying schedule. A drop from 5 sets to 3 sets could also be introduced. There is still a place for the Davis Cup, but it does need some sort of revamp.

No mandatory tournaments


The only real need for mandatory tournaments is because of the worry that if there wasn't, there would be no real motivation to play in some of the Masters such as Shanghai. However, in many ways players find a way to manipulate the schedule to their needs. Djokovic has picked up a timely injury and will miss the Asian swing. Federer has essentially played the 'can't be arsed' card to not attend Shanghai while Murray just loses in the first round every so often when he can't be bothered.

On the flipside, even without mandatory events I doubt there would be too much of a difference. Many would suggest smaller tournaments would sturggle, but I'm not so sure. Queens is only a 250 event yet as its the only grass court event before Wimbledon it usually attracts most of the top 10. I doubt people attend just as it is mandatory to play in a certain number of 250 events. Murray is on a mission to finish the year ranked 3rd and is playing in Bangkok, Beijing and Shanghai. Djokovic often plays his home event, and sponsors will always find a way to tempt a player to appear.

As for the Masters Events, I doubt many would suffer. Even the top 4 need ranking points and this is a good way of getting them. Shanghai, Paris and potentially one of Indian Wells/Miami might suffer, but not enough to ruin everything. And as detailed above, if a player doesn't want to play, then they won't.

Rearrange the entire schedule


The schedule doesn't really need too many changes but some of it doesn't make sense. The Australian Open is out of sync with the Asian swing, meaning players need to travel out to the far east twice. A swing of Beijing, Shanghai then Australian Open in January/February would make much more sense. Keep the players out in the far East for one time a year and lend more credence to the Shanghai Masters too. This could all be done by moving the Australian Open back a few weeks.

Tournaments such as Rotterdam and Marseille could then swap to now, and provide a lead in to the Paris Masters. The World Tour Finals could be moved forward a month and give the players all of November and December off. This seems a fairly simple solution that wouldn't involve altering much of the rest of the calender.

More competition for the top 4


It perhaps says it all that out of the 7 players to reach all four Grand Slam semi finals in a year, four of them are Nadal, Federer, Djokovic and Murray. None of them did any worse than reaching the Quarter Finals. This was not the case in the past. For example in 1997, Pete Sampras won two Grand Slams, reached the third round and the fourth round in the others. In 1995 he lost in the 1st round at the French, and in 1996 in the 3rd round of the Australian.

Michael Stich, who stuck his oar in to the debate, had his best year in 1991. Yet he still only got to the third round of the Australian Open and the quarters at the US. Boris Becker reached the quarters or better in 3 events in 1990, yet lost in the 1st round in the French. In 1991, it was only the third round at the US Open.  In 1987, Edberg reached one final, two semis, and lost in the 3rd at the French. This goes on and on.

Now part of this is the issue is that the surfaces are all very similar now, but whatever the reason the players are currently are putting in more effort in the Grand Slams than players in the past. In addition, the game is more physically demanding than back then. Something Michael Stich tends to ignore when he answered the question nobody had asked him.

Conclusion

There are solutions to the problem, but none of them will be used!

Tuesday 13 September 2011

Why Djokovic's domination doesn't feel quite right

Novak Djokovic has won three Grand Slams this year and so far only lost two matches. Yet in my opinion there is something not quite right about his domination. It doesn't feel as exciting or as incredible as when previous players have dominated. What exactly is it that doesn't feel right? I should start this off by saying I don't have a particular grudge against Djokovic. I am far happier he is winning things than Del Potro, Soderling or Berdych. The tennis he has played at times has been incredible. There is now no obvious weakness in his game. However in a way I can't help but feel that all he has really done is learn how to beat Nadal.

The Djokovic-Nadal "Rivalry"


So far this year the scores have been as follows (all finals):

Indian Wells: Djokovic wins 4-6 6-3 6-2
Miami: Djokovic wins 4-6 6-4 7-6
Madrid: Djokovic wins 7-5 6-4
Rome: Djokovic wins 6-4 6-4
Wimbledon: Djokovic wins 6-4 6-1 1-6 6-3
US Open: Djokovic wins

That isn't a rivalry by any stretch of the imagination. That is one player being comprehensively better than the other. A rivalry really requires somebody else to be winning. "Oh but Nadal always beat Federer" is probably the cry. Well he didn't for a start, Federer beat him at Wimbledon in 06 and 07 and in Masters Series Events. When Nadal did win, it was often by epic matches considered the best of all time. The excellent Miami final aside, none of these matches have matched the Federer - Nadal battles of old.

There is only so long this can go on before it gets a bit dull. Already the US Open just didn't quite seem as big a deal as it was so abundantly clear Djokovic would win. Whatever Djokovic has done, Nadal does not have an answer to it. Worryingly the matches are getting even more one sided than anything.

Murray and Federer can push Djokovic


Here are the results between Murray and Djokovic this year:

Australian Open Final: Djokovic wins 6-4 6-2 6-3 (though who doesn't against Murray in a  Slam final)
Rome semi final: Djokovic wins 6-1, 3-6, 7-6 (Murray serves for match)
Cincinnati Final: Murray wins 6-4 3-0 RET

And the results between Djokovic and Federer

Australian Open Semi: Djokovic wins 7-6 7-5 6-4
Dubai Final: Djokovic wins 6-3 6-3
Indian Wells Semi: Djokovic wins 6-3 3-6 6-2
French Open Semi: Federer wins 7-6 6-3 3-6 7-6
US Open Semi: Djokovic wins 6-7 4-6 6-3 6-2 7-5 (Federer has two match points on serve)

Now it is clear that Djokovic has had the better of these players this year. However, it has not been such plain sailing. Murray was a service hold away from beating him in Rome, and Federer should really have beaten Djokovic twice in Slams this year. That Djokovic fought back is testament to the year he is having, but next year these results may (and will) go differently. While the result was ultimately the same, the match was far closer and much more exciting.

In addition, they have both beaten him this year. Djokovic can argue he had one arm in Cincinnati but the fact remains he has had more of an issue with Murray and Federer than Nadal.

Nadal doing the dirty work for Djokovic


Next, we look at the Nadal record v Federer and Murray.

v Murray

Monte Carlo semi: Nadal wins 6-4, 2-6, 6-1
French Open Semi: 6-4 7-5 6-4
Wimbledon Semi: 5-7 6-2 6-2 6-4
US Open Semi: 6-4 6-2 3-6 6-2

v Federer

Miami Semi: Nadal wins 6-3 6-2
Madrid Semi: Nadal wins 5-7 6-1 6-3
French Open Final: Nadal wins 7-5 7-6 5-7 6-1

Nadal is 7 for 7 against Murray and Federer this year. In particular, Nadal looks so comfortable against Murray these days. The only real worry was Wimbledon where Murray imploded after blowing the chance to lead by a set and a break. The US Open semi demonstrated that Nadal really is just consistently 1 or 2% better than Murray in the big matches. Its a similar situation against Federer, though this is more of a mental issue. Federer should certainly have taken the first set against Nadal in Paris, but lost 7 odd games in a row and couldn't get back into it.

It isn't entirely clear what Nadal does differently in these matches that he does against Djokovic. But from the look of results, it seems there is an odd situation where Djokovic dominates Nadal, Nadal dominates Murray and Federer, yet Murray and Federer trouble Djokovic.

The same draw in every Slam


In something like 17 out of the last 19 Slams, Murray and Nadal have been in the same half. It is a stat so astonishing that there is almost certainly some sort of conspiracy behind it. I'm sure some guy at the ITF is going to admit to being too lazy to actually do a new draw every year so just using the same template every tournament for the top 4. The Masters is less predictable, but as a quirk this year it has only been the finals where Nadal and Djokovic have met.

Anyway, as a result the slams have played out exactly the same all year (more or less). The Australian was slightly different as without Nadal in the semis, Murray was able to get through to a final which he lost in his traditional straight sets. Djokovic had a comfortable victory over Federer and thoroughly deserved his victory.

The hard court Masters were notable for Murray not bothering, and Federer being off the boil, so as 1 and 2 it was predictable they would keep meeting in finals. Djokovic won every time. Yet in the clay season, his toughest match was against Murray in the semi final in Rome.

In the French, a trend began. The big 4 made it to the semis, and Nadal dominated Murray. Federer gave Djokovic a tough match and ultimately triumphed.

In Wimbledon, the same draw. Nadal dominated Murray again. Federer switched off against Tsonga leaving Djokovic a clear path to the final. A final he won with a fair amount of ease.

In the US Open, the same draw. Nadal dominated Murray again. It was as expected. Federer made it through and gave Djokovic a very tough match. He was an incredible forehand return from defeat. He then once again faced Nadal in the final and won with ease.

Now as 1 and 2 in the world, it is likely the pair will end up meeting in the final. However, the lack of variety has spoiled it somewhat. By the time the US Open rolled around, it was a case of here we go again in terms of Murray v Nadal. Would it be too much to ask for a Nadal v Federer semi?

What all this combines to do


The combination of the above factors, I feel, take away from what Djokovic is doing. It is not his fault he is able to comprehensively dominate Nadal, or that the draws are predictable. However, it is spoiling tennis slightly.

Essentially, we are in a loop where there are no particularly close matches for much of the tournament. Nadal usually dispatches Murray or Federer with ease, then is defeated in the final. This leaves only Djokovic v Fed or Murray as the interesting match out of the final 3. In addition, the same draw every time means it is the same predictable results every time. It is difficult to get excited by Nadal v Murray and Nadal v Djokovic anymore. Tournaments are also deprived of a Nadal v Federer meeting, a matchup that can still get people going even if Nadal is usually victorious.

Conclusion


1. Djokovic has undoubtedly improved.
2. However Djokovic appears to have improved in the sense that he now beats Nadal with ease.
3. Djokovic still struggles more against Federer and Murray.
4. Murray toys with Federer and Murray.
5. The rankings and predictable draws mean it always ends up being Djokovic and Nadal.
6. This is all getting quite predictable and taking away from what Djokovic has done.

Tuesday 6 September 2011

US Open Week 1 (and a bit)

The final grand slam of the year is just over half way complete, although it has now been postponed indefinitely due to rain. Here are the first week thoughts.

The young guns are back to being hopeless


After Bernard Tomic made a stunning run to the Wimbledon quarter finals and gave Djokovic a scare there was real hope that some young blood would do well in the US Open. However it was not to be, and it is a player who dominated the juniors 4 years ago who has made the most impact.

Ryan Harrison went down in the first round to Marin Cilic in straight sets. In the process he managed to throw a substantial amount of toys from what must have been a very large pram. Rackets were thrown, balls were kicked and it was all very undignified. Such was the behaviour he managed to draw boos from the home crowd despite being American.

Bernard Tomic did little better, winning his first round before facing Cilic in the second. Hopes were high after they had an epic battle in the 2010 Australian Open, but Cilic breezed through 6-1 6-0 6-2. After his big break at Wimbledon Tomic will be disappointed with such a poor result. Hopefully Australia 2011 will see him back to doing well.

Milos Raonic can be spared as he is till recovering from injury. However it has been a disappointing second half of 2011 for Milos after such a great start. He is yet to recover from his injury picked up at Wimbledon and has missed the chance to make a bigger impact. Once again, it is the same faces heading into the last 8.

Donald Young makes his breakthrough


There was a time when it looked like Donald Young would be Federer and Nadals next big rival. Young dominated the juniors and aged 19 had made it to number 73 in the world. He reached the 3rd round in the US Open back in 2007. It then all went horribly wrong as Young descended into mediocrity. Earlier this year, he did beat Murrays identical twin who is sent to play in Miami and Indian Wells as Murray himself cries about the Australian Open in a dark room.

Young reached a career low when he decided that the USTA were unreasonable in not giving him a wild card to Roland Garros. His truly magnificent, grammatically upsetting and mildly threatening tweet read "F*** USTA! Their full of s***! They have screwed me for the last time". He then deleted his entire twitter and hopefully learned the difference between there, their and they're.

A few months later, grown up and hopefully slightly more educated, he has made quite an impact at the US Open. He beat a rather rotund looking Wawrinka and then followed it up by beating Chela. Andy Murray awaits, and I do not intend to pass comment on his chances lest it be a jinx.

Andy Murray has his contractual-obligation horror show


Every year at the US Open, Murray throws in an absolute shocker. In 2008, he was two points from defeat against Melzer in the third round before coming back. In 2009, he was absolutely smashed by Cilic and in 2010 he ruined the entire tournament by losing from a set and a break up to a less rotund looking Wawrinka.

He has mostly erased these performances in other slams recently, having a fairly smooth run through recent Wimbledons and Australian Opens. Even his rollercoaster against Troiki at the French Open could be put down to the fact he was playing on one ankle.

His match against Haase had all the hallmarks of a classic US Open nightmare. There was the odd imaginary injury, the general shouting, the inexplicable collapse from a lead and the shouting at the camp. After losing the second set 6-2 it all looked over. Murray then tried and at 4-0 in the fifth, spent the changeover making some changes to his fantasy football team or something. Distracted, it went back to 4-4 and to be honest Haase should not have lost from there. But he did.

Horror show over with Murray looked back to his best against Lopez and should fancy his chances against Young, if it ever takes place.

Incredible amount of withdrawals

There were something like 18 withdrawals from the tournament which some, like Andy Murray, put down to the strenuous tennis season. Though this doesn't tell the whole story. It was clear that Conor Niland and Louk Sorensen were clearly both incredibly hungover after celebrating qualifying too hard. Niland in particular had all the hallmarks of a massive hangover as he threw up, walked around lethargically for a while then decided to just go back home and curl up for a while.

Robin Soderling clearly just couldn't be bothered to play, pulling out mere minutes before Louk Sorensen but with enough time that somebody else could take advantage of the Irishmans hangover. Tomas Berdych just dived and fooled the umpire into thinking he was injured. Venus Williams made up a new illness altogether that wasn't challenged while Karol Beck appears to have retired for "reason unknown".

Womens tennis continues to embarrass itself


Serena Williams will win. It is now barely a sport.