Novak Djokovic has won three Grand Slams this year and so far only lost two matches. Yet in my opinion there is something not quite right about his domination. It doesn't feel as exciting or as incredible as when previous players have dominated. What exactly is it that doesn't feel right? I should start this off by saying I don't have a particular grudge against Djokovic. I am far happier he is winning things than Del Potro, Soderling or Berdych. The tennis he has played at times has been incredible. There is now no obvious weakness in his game. However in a way I can't help but feel that all he has really done is learn how to beat Nadal.
The Djokovic-Nadal "Rivalry"
So far this year the scores have been as follows (all finals):
Indian Wells: Djokovic wins 4-6 6-3 6-2
Miami: Djokovic wins 4-6 6-4 7-6
Madrid: Djokovic wins 7-5 6-4
Rome: Djokovic wins 6-4 6-4
Wimbledon: Djokovic wins 6-4 6-1 1-6 6-3
US Open: Djokovic wins
That isn't a rivalry by any stretch of the imagination. That is one player being comprehensively better than the other. A rivalry really requires somebody else to be winning. "Oh but Nadal always beat Federer" is probably the cry. Well he didn't for a start, Federer beat him at Wimbledon in 06 and 07 and in Masters Series Events. When Nadal did win, it was often by epic matches considered the best of all time. The excellent Miami final aside, none of these matches have matched the Federer - Nadal battles of old.
There is only so long this can go on before it gets a bit dull. Already the US Open just didn't quite seem as big a deal as it was so abundantly clear Djokovic would win. Whatever Djokovic has done, Nadal does not have an answer to it. Worryingly the matches are getting even more one sided than anything.
Murray and Federer can push Djokovic
Here are the results between Murray and Djokovic this year:
Australian Open Final: Djokovic wins 6-4 6-2 6-3 (though who doesn't against Murray in a Slam final)
Rome semi final: Djokovic wins 6-1, 3-6, 7-6 (Murray serves for match)
Cincinnati Final: Murray wins 6-4 3-0 RET
And the results between Djokovic and Federer
Australian Open Semi: Djokovic wins 7-6 7-5 6-4
Dubai Final: Djokovic wins 6-3 6-3
Indian Wells Semi: Djokovic wins 6-3 3-6 6-2
French Open Semi: Federer wins 7-6 6-3 3-6 7-6
US Open Semi: Djokovic wins 6-7 4-6 6-3 6-2 7-5 (Federer has two match points on serve)
Now it is clear that Djokovic has had the better of these players this year. However, it has not been such plain sailing. Murray was a service hold away from beating him in Rome, and Federer should really have beaten Djokovic twice in Slams this year. That Djokovic fought back is testament to the year he is having, but next year these results may (and will) go differently. While the result was ultimately the same, the match was far closer and much more exciting.
In addition, they have both beaten him this year. Djokovic can argue he had one arm in Cincinnati but the fact remains he has had more of an issue with Murray and Federer than Nadal.
Nadal doing the dirty work for Djokovic
Next, we look at the Nadal record v Federer and Murray.
v Murray
Monte Carlo semi: Nadal wins 6-4, 2-6, 6-1
French Open Semi: 6-4 7-5 6-4
Wimbledon Semi: 5-7 6-2 6-2 6-4
US Open Semi: 6-4 6-2 3-6 6-2
v Federer
Miami Semi: Nadal wins 6-3 6-2
Madrid Semi: Nadal wins 5-7 6-1 6-3
French Open Final: Nadal wins 7-5 7-6 5-7 6-1
Nadal is 7 for 7 against Murray and Federer this year. In particular, Nadal looks so comfortable against Murray these days. The only real worry was Wimbledon where Murray imploded after blowing the chance to lead by a set and a break. The US Open semi demonstrated that Nadal really is just consistently 1 or 2% better than Murray in the big matches. Its a similar situation against Federer, though this is more of a mental issue. Federer should certainly have taken the first set against Nadal in Paris, but lost 7 odd games in a row and couldn't get back into it.
It isn't entirely clear what Nadal does differently in these matches that he does against Djokovic. But from the look of results, it seems there is an odd situation where Djokovic dominates Nadal, Nadal dominates Murray and Federer, yet Murray and Federer trouble Djokovic.
The same draw in every Slam
In something like 17 out of the last 19 Slams, Murray and Nadal have been in the same half. It is a stat so astonishing that there is almost certainly some sort of conspiracy behind it. I'm sure some guy at the ITF is going to admit to being too lazy to actually do a new draw every year so just using the same template every tournament for the top 4. The Masters is less predictable, but as a quirk this year it has only been the finals where Nadal and Djokovic have met.
Anyway, as a result the slams have played out exactly the same all year (more or less). The Australian was slightly different as without Nadal in the semis, Murray was able to get through to a final which he lost in his traditional straight sets. Djokovic had a comfortable victory over Federer and thoroughly deserved his victory.
The hard court Masters were notable for Murray not bothering, and Federer being off the boil, so as 1 and 2 it was predictable they would keep meeting in finals. Djokovic won every time. Yet in the clay season, his toughest match was against Murray in the semi final in Rome.
In the French, a trend began. The big 4 made it to the semis, and Nadal dominated Murray. Federer gave Djokovic a tough match and ultimately triumphed.
In Wimbledon, the same draw. Nadal dominated Murray again. Federer switched off against Tsonga leaving Djokovic a clear path to the final. A final he won with a fair amount of ease.
In the US Open, the same draw. Nadal dominated Murray again. It was as expected. Federer made it through and gave Djokovic a very tough match. He was an incredible forehand return from defeat. He then once again faced Nadal in the final and won with ease.
Now as 1 and 2 in the world, it is likely the pair will end up meeting in the final. However, the lack of variety has spoiled it somewhat. By the time the US Open rolled around, it was a case of here we go again in terms of Murray v Nadal. Would it be too much to ask for a Nadal v Federer semi?
What all this combines to do
The combination of the above factors, I feel, take away from what Djokovic is doing. It is not his fault he is able to comprehensively dominate Nadal, or that the draws are predictable. However, it is spoiling tennis slightly.
Essentially, we are in a loop where there are no particularly close matches for much of the tournament. Nadal usually dispatches Murray or Federer with ease, then is defeated in the final. This leaves only Djokovic v Fed or Murray as the interesting match out of the final 3. In addition, the same draw every time means it is the same predictable results every time. It is difficult to get excited by Nadal v Murray and Nadal v Djokovic anymore. Tournaments are also deprived of a Nadal v Federer meeting, a matchup that can still get people going even if Nadal is usually victorious.
Conclusion
1. Djokovic has undoubtedly improved.
2. However Djokovic appears to have improved in the sense that he now beats Nadal with ease.
3. Djokovic still struggles more against Federer and Murray.
4. Murray toys with Federer and Murray.
5. The rankings and predictable draws mean it always ends up being Djokovic and Nadal.
6. This is all getting quite predictable and taking away from what Djokovic has done.
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